How much can you actually predict about a person, if you become skilled in applied personality psychology? Can you accurately predict a persons core values? Fears?
I will do a series where I gather 30 second video interviews from 100 strangers. Using this material I will predict a persons core values (personality type) and secondary values (Enneagram)
To confirm my predictions, I will have people take my personality tests and Enneagram tests.
A successful experiment
If my experiment is successful, I should have a prediction rate above 6%. Why? Because there are sixteen personality types, the chance is 1/16 that I should be able to guess a persons personality type. That's 6%.
However, the question is not just if I can guess right, but it is if I can be accurate enough to say that my typing is reliable. I would argue that a meaningful prediction rate is about 25%. That means that you are correct at least 1/4 of the time. If your prediction rate is at least 50% that would suggest that you have almost mastered the art and that you are very consistent. 75% would be a close to perfect guess rate, and would suggest that you had an almost machine-like accuracy.
So let's make a wager.
If I have a prediction rate below 6% I'll change the colour of this website to yellow, my least favourite colour.
If my prediction rate is above 6%, nothing happens.
If my prediction rate is above 25%, I'll change my logo to a silver trophy for a week.
If my prediction rate is above 50%, I'll change my logo to a gold trophy for a week.
How accurate will I be?