Sweden 2030 · the rebuilding coalition

A home, a job, a future

Social Democrats, the Centre Party and the Greens, with the Left Party voting with them. One job they all agree on: rebuild. Homes, the grid, the railways, the schools, the welfare state.

The same price across the whole country

One electricity price. State grants to municipalities raised every year in law.

Compete on skill, not on low wages

The state pays for the retraining and the move. Capital raises output per hour.

Rebuild what we already own

100 billion into the railways and the grid. Welfare that keeps its quality, this year and in 2040.

Five things finished by 2030

60,000 homes a year, up from 29,500, with prices flat while wages rise a fifth.
The same electricity price in Malmö as in Luleå.
Every school funded to a floor, with no profit taken out, and pupils who leave believing they can do something.
State grants to municipalities and regions raised in law every year, so no region cuts a ward without a vote.
Industry back home: cheap power, permits in months, trained welders.

The election result

The chamber after 13 September, if you want the detail

Preliminary count, 6,276 of 6,626 districts. Changes are against 2022.

The Sweden Democrats had the worst night. Migration numbers fell under the Tidö government, so that is not what they lost on. They lost on prices and housing.
The Social Democrats went backwards too. The gains went to the Left Party and the Greens, so a programme written only from the centre will not pass.
The Centre Party decides whether this works. The government below is built around their refusal to give the Left Party ministries.

My vision for government

Three parties in government, the Left Party supporting from outside

The agreement with the Left Party runs to four pages. Names are taken from the briefs people held before the election, so check them against who actually took a seat.

Post	Party	Who	Why
Prime Minister	S	Magdalena Andersson	The only leader the other two can both work with.
Finance	S	Markus Kallifatides	An economist, not a career minister. He wrote the argument for separating investment from running costs, so he should run it.
Financial markets and housing finance	C	Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist	She has done venture financing and lost her own money at it.
Enterprise and industry	C	Martin Ådahl	An economist who dislikes picking winners, which is the rule here.
Energy	C	Rickard Nordin	Ten years on the energy brief and he wants to build.
Rural affairs and agriculture	C	Daniel Bäckström	A farmer. Climate resilience happens field by field.
Local government and regions	C	Muharrem Demirok	Party leader, came up through municipal planning, and indexing the state grants is this ministry's main job.
Climate and environment	MP	Per Bolund	Former environment and financial markets minister. He can argue climate in budget terms.
Housing and planning	MP	Daniel Helldén	Ran traffic and planning in Stockholm. A Green who builds rather than blocks.
Digitalisation and public technology	MP	Amanda Lind	The Greens have the clearest line on data protection. The job is setting standards, not buying systems.
International development	MP	Emma Nohrén	Marine biologist with the environment brief. Aid and climate belong together.
Education and research	S	Anna Ekström	Education minister 2019–22 and head of the school agency before that.
Employment and skills	S	Eva Nordmark	Former employment minister and union confederation head. Employers and unions both take her calls.
Health and social affairs	S	Lena Hallengren	She ran this ministry through the pandemic. Largest budget, and the Left Party's main interest.
Social insurance	S	Ardalan Shekarabi	Sick pay and pensions, which he has done before.
Justice	S	Anders Ygeman	Held the police brief. Survives a bad news week.
Migration	S	Teresa Carvalho	The points system needs someone who can sell predictable rules to both sides.
Defence	S	Peter Hultqvist	He moved Sweden into NATO, so he can hold the commitments while changing what the money buys.
Civil defence and preparedness	S	Mikael Damberg	Its own ministry and budget line, so preparedness stops being a rounding error.
Foreign affairs	S	Heléne Fritzon	Years in the European Parliament. Ukraine, the single market and Asia all run through Brussels first.
EU affairs	S	Jytte Guteland	Negotiated the EU climate law. She knows the committees.
Infrastructure	S	Tomas Eneroth	Rail, ports and grid, much of it paid from the preparedness half of the NATO target.
Culture	S	Lawen Redar	Public service, media support and the civil society money.

How each party can thrive in the coalition

Including the Left Party, which supports without governing

Social Democrats

Good at: running large systems, holding the country together, keeping the state, regions and municipalities pointed the same way.

Limited on: handing out money to individual companies. Those rules sit with the Centre Party.

Centre Party

Good at: business conditions, moving decisions out of Stockholm, farming, and asking whether a project is realistic.

Limited on: tax cuts. Their wins come from cheap power, fast permits and better logistics.

Greens

Good at: climate and nature, building dense cities, digital rights.

Limited on: nuclear. It goes ahead in a Centre Party ministry. In return, the same fast permits apply to wind and grid.

Left Party, from outside

Good at: keeping the cost of food and rent on the agenda after everyone else has moved on.

Paid in: indexed state grants, a housing programme for renters, and the sick pay deduction abolished. Outside because that is the only arrangement the Centre Party accepts. Four pages, not seventy-three points.

Sixteen things to do, and who owns each

Open it if you want the detail

1. A home a family can afford

60,000 homes a year. A flat that costs three million today still costs three million in 2030, while wages have risen a fifth. Nobody loses money on paper.
Mortgage interest deduction from 30 to 15 per cent. Property tax back, with a cap, an exempt amount and deferral for pensioners.
Fixed permit deadlines, state land released, and public building contracts opened to Nordic and Baltic bidders.
A state guarantee covering part of the deposit for under-35s, repaid over the mortgage.

Housing and planning (MP), Financial markets (C)

2. One electricity price

Grid south first: Svenska kraftnät's Nordsyd programme, roughly 100 billion kronor and 2,000 kilometres of line.
Wind and solar now, nuclear on the 2025 financing framework. The mix stops depending on the weather.
A guaranteed price for large industrial users, and permits with deadlines.

Energy (C), Climate (MP)

3. Industry that comes home

Compete on skill, not on low wages. This is Rehn-Meidner: the state pays for retraining, the move and the income in between, and capital raises output per hour in return. 4 billion kronor.
A research deduction any company can claim, and faster write-off on machinery. Nothing that picks a winner.
For companies bringing production back from Asia: permits, trained staff, a long power contract. Repayment if they leave again within ten years.
Private investors lose their money first, payments in stages, one named official answers for each decision.

Enterprise (C), Employment (S), Finance (S)

4. A school that gives boys and girls belief in their own ability and future

A funding floor per pupil, and no profit taken out of a school.
Phones stay handed in. Handwriting, arithmetic and textbooks in the early years, computers later and for specific tasks.
The state takes responsibility for the money. Municipalities keep the schools.

Education and research (S)

5. The skills the country needs

Vocational adult education places and paid apprenticeships, with employers and unions writing the content. 8 billion kronor with teachers.
University base funding raised so departments stop living on short project grants. 12 billion with public research.

Employment (S), Education and research (S)

6. Welfare that keeps its quality

The point is the service: the same care, school and social work next year and in 2040. State grants to municipalities and regions therefore rise every year in law, not by a decision each autumn. 15 billion kronor.
Regions stay. National standards and staffing for elderly care.
The sick pay deduction abolished, with small employers compensated. 12 billion.

Local government and regions (C), Health (S), Social insurance (S)

7. Security that also builds the country

Keep the NATO commitment. Spend the 1.5 per cent preparedness half of it on railways, ports, grid and water, which work in peacetime too.
Civil defence gets its own ministry and budget line. 10 billion kronor, moved inside the target rather than added.

Defence (S), Civil defence (S), Infrastructure (S)

8. European rules, Swedish control

Harmonise the rules that block a Swedish company from selling across the single market.
Keep the krona and the Riksbank. Tax and budget policy stay national.

EU affairs (S), Finance (S)

9. Open to the whole world

NATO is an alliance for defence, not a franchise on foreign policy.
Trade and research links with Asia, built deliberately rather than by accident.
Support for Ukraine for as long as it takes.

Foreign affairs (S)

10. Public systems that work together

One open standard for municipal IT, many suppliers, bought once instead of 290 times.
A national compute facility and Swedish-language models, open to universities, public bodies and companies.
A named official decides every case about a person and explains it in plain Swedish. A model nobody can question does not decide anything about anybody.

Digitalisation (MP), Local government (C)

11. Safer streets, rules people can plan around

Social services and prevention funded where the recruitment happens. 5 billion kronor.
Migration on a points system, predictable in both directions, set out in Sverigepoäng.

Justice (S), Migration (S)

12. Journalism that explains what happened

Pay media support per editorial job, per investigation, and per paying subscriber. An outlet then earns more by being worth paying for than by chasing clicks.
A grant line for follow-up reporting six to twenty-four months after an event, so the public gets the end of a story.
Public service keeps its core job at flat funding; the growth goes to local and independent titles.
No public body should need a Facebook account to reach a citizen.

Culture (S)

13. A state that makes markets work

A blanket ban on public bodies selling things fixes the municipal gym and breaks the municipal broadband. Replace it with a test: no private supplier at an acceptable price, preparedness, more competition rather than less, or spare capacity being used.
Keep separate accounts from January 2027, so a local firm can read the reasoning and challenge it.

Enterprise (C), Local government (C)

14. Being able to start a family

1.42 children per woman is the lowest ever measured, and young adults say the reason is money.
Raise the child supplement in student finance, and the floor in parental pay where young parents sit. 6 billion kronor.
The deposit guarantee in area one does most of the work.

Social insurance (S), Education (S), Housing (MP)

16. One card for every bus and train in Sweden

Sverigekortet: one card and one app that works on every regional bus, tram and train in the country, with fares set on the same national scale instead of 21 regional ones.
A national monthly ticket, so commuting across a county border stops costing double.
The regions keep running the traffic. The state pays for the ticketing system and the shared standard behind it, the same way it does for public IT in area ten.
The Centre Party gets rural transport that actually connects, the Greens get the cheapest emissions cut available, and the Left Party gets a fare a cleaner can afford.

Infrastructure (S), Local government and regions (C)

15. Being able to work out what is happening to you

Rent rises because of a tax deduction, an abolished property tax and twenty years of not building. Those causes take a paragraph to explain, and nobody explains them, so people are left guessing.
Fund all ten study associations, by participant formula and not by ministerial approval, to teach how a budget, a rent and an electricity price are actually set.
When a price or a benefit moves, the agency responsible publishes the reason in plain Swedish the same day. The Riksbank on the interest rate, Svenska kraftnät on the electricity price, Boverket on housebuilding.
2 billion kronor, the smallest item here.

Education (S), Culture (S)

Order of work

What happens when

First hundred days

Decide the rules

The four-page agreement with the Left Party. Index the state grants in law. Legislate the permit deadlines, the interest deduction taper and the property tax. Split the investment budget from the operating budget. None of it costs much and all of it takes a year to pass.

Years two to four

Build

Grid south, rail and ports from the preparedness budget, the first nuclear decision points, the reshoring package, the school funding floor and the IT standard. This is when the money goes out, which is why the rules had to be settled first.

How the opposition can influence this government

What I would take from each losing party, and what I would leave

Moderaterna

Take: permit deadlines, grid build-out, and the nuclear financing framework they passed in 2025.

Leave: tax cuts funded by holding welfare grants flat.

Kristdemokraterna

Take: national standards for elderly care, and their diagnosis of the regions, which is the sharpest thing any party says about Swedish health care.

Leave: abolishing the regions outright. The funding floor is the halfway house.

Liberalerna

Take: state responsibility for school funding, textbooks, and teacher authority in the classroom.

Leave: free school choice without a funding floor, which is what produced the postcode problem.

Sverigedemokraterna

Take: the electricity price areas, rural transport costs as a regional problem, staffing in elderly care, and national control of the krona.

Leave: their migration policy. The points system replaces it with rules that are predictable in both directions.

What this is built on

Sources, and how this page was made

Seats are the preliminary count from 14 September 2026. The historical figures come from my Sweden 1945 to 2026 page, which sources every chart. Also used: the NATO commitment agreed at The Hague, 3.5 per cent core defence plus 1.5 per cent security investment by 2035; the erosion of general state grants, about 11 billion kronor for municipalities and 2 billion for regions since 2005, from SKR and the 2026 budget bill; Svenska kraftnät's Nordsyd programme; the pension buffer funds' 5.8 billion kronor loss on Northvolt; the cost of abolishing the sick pay deduction, estimated at 14 to 24 billion a year; and a birth rate of 1.42. My migration proposal is at migration.erikthor.com.

I wrote this with an AI assistant, which checked figures, found sources and drafted from my notes. The positions and the choice of people are mine. Corrections to [email protected].